Women’s World Cup 2025: How India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka Can Still Qualify for the Semi-Finals

With South Africa, Australia, and England already through to the Women’s World Cup semi-finals, here’s how India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka can still fight their way into the final four.

The Race for the Final Semi-Final Spot

As the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 moves into its decisive phase, three teams — India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka — are locked in a fierce battle for the last remaining semi-final berth.

South Africa, Australia, and England have already booked their places in the top three, leaving the remaining sides to battle for the final spot. Meanwhile, Pakistan and Bangladesh have been officially eliminated from contention, both languishing at the bottom of the table with two points each.

With each of the three contenders tied on four points, the upcoming fixtures will be crucial in determining who joins the semi-final lineup.

Current Standings and Context

After the latest round of matches, here’s how the points table looks among the teams vying for qualification:

• 4th: India — 4 points (Net Run Rate: +0.526)
• 5th: New Zealand — 4 points (Net Run Rate: -0.245)
• 6th: Sri Lanka — 4 points (Net Run Rate: -1.035)

The margins are thin, and the permutations are complex — meaning each ball bowled in the coming fixtures could influence the final semi-finalist.

How India Can Qualify for the Semi-Finals

India’s position: 4th (NRR +0.526)
Remaining matches: vs New Zealand (Thursday), vs Bangladesh (Sunday)

As hosts of this year’s tournament, India remain in the strongest position to qualify — but they can’t afford to slip up. Their path to the semi-finals depends on how they fare in their final two group-stage games.

Scenario 1: India win both remaining matches

If India defeat New Zealand and Bangladesh, they will finish with eight points, comfortably securing the fourth semi-final spot, regardless of other results.

Scenario 2: India beat New Zealand but lose to Bangladesh

A win over New Zealand would bring India to six points, enough to keep them in contention. However, if they then lose to Bangladesh, they would have to rely on England defeating New Zealand to ensure their qualification. Their strong net run rate could prove decisive in this case.

Scenario 3: India lose to New Zealand but beat Bangladesh

If India lose to New Zealand, they must beat Bangladesh in their final match and hope that England beat New Zealand. Even then, qualification would depend on the final net run rate (NRR) standings.

Scenario 4: India lose both matches

This would mark a disastrous end to India’s campaign — and eliminate them from the tournament they’re hosting.

India’s performance so far

The Women in Blue have had a mixed run this season. Their two victories came against Sri Lanka (by 59 runs via DLS) and Bangladesh, but heavy losses to Pakistan (by 88 runs) and South Africa (by 3 wickets) have dented their consistency. A narrow four-run defeat to England at home also showcased their vulnerability in close contests.

Captain Harmanpreet Kaur and opener Smriti Mandhana will be key if India hope to finish strong and keep their semi-final dreams alive.

How New Zealand Can Still Qualify

New Zealand’s position: 5th (NRR -0.245)
Remaining matches: vs India (Thursday), vs England (Sunday)

For the White Ferns, qualification is possible — but the margin for error is almost zero. They must deliver back-to-back victories against two formidable sides to seal their spot in the semi-finals.

Scenario 1: New Zealand win both remaining matches

If New Zealand defeat India and England, they’ll finish with eight points, leapfrogging the competition to clinch the final semi-final position. Their NRR would also improve significantly in this case.

Scenario 2: Beat India but lose to England

In this case, New Zealand will finish with six points, but qualification will depend on Bangladesh defeating India and Sri Lanka failing to surpass New Zealand’s net run rate.

Scenario 3: Lose to India but beat England

This is a tricky situation. If New Zealand lose to India, they will be eliminated unless a combination of other results drastically shifts the standings — including India’s loss to Bangladesh and a massive improvement in the White Ferns’ NRR.

Scenario 4: Lose both matches

If the White Ferns fail to win either remaining game, their World Cup campaign will end immediately.

New Zealand’s tournament so far

New Zealand’s journey has been turbulent. Out of five matches, they’ve managed just one win — a dominant 100-run victory over Bangladesh. They suffered heavy defeats to Australia (by 89 runs) and South Africa (by six wickets), while their fixtures against Pakistan and Sri Lanka were both washed out.

Their batting unit, led by Sophie Devine and Suzie Bates, has shown flashes of brilliance but needs greater consistency to overcome India and England in their final two games.

How Sri Lanka Can Qualify Against the Odds

Sri Lanka’s position: 6th (NRR -1.035)
Remaining match: vs Pakistan (Friday)

For Sri Lanka, the path to the semi-finals is extremely narrow. While mathematically possible, their fate depends largely on the results of other teams.

Scenario 1: Beat Pakistan and hope for favorable results

Sri Lanka must win their final group match against Pakistan. However, that alone won’t be enough — they also need:

• India to lose both remaining matches (against New Zealand and Bangladesh), and
• New Zealand to lose to England.

Even if all of that happens, Sri Lanka’s qualification will depend on their net run rate finishing higher than New Zealand’s.

Scenario 2: Lose to Pakistan

Any loss in their remaining fixture will end Sri Lanka’s campaign immediately.

Sri Lanka’s tournament so far

Sri Lanka’s World Cup has been a rollercoaster. They recorded their first victory earlier this week in a thrilling finish against Bangladesh, where captain Chamari Athapaththu bowled the final overs herself to secure a narrow win.

However, heavy defeats to England (by 89 runs) and South Africa (by 10 wickets via DLS) have hurt their momentum. Their scheduled match against Australia was abandoned without a ball being bowled due to rain — a blow that cost them crucial points.

To stay alive, Athapaththu’s side will need a dominant win over Pakistan and a bit of luck from other results.

Pakistan and Bangladesh: Out of the Race

For Pakistan and Bangladesh, the dream of reaching the semi-finals is over. Both teams have managed just two points each and have been mathematically eliminated from the top-four race.

Pakistan’s hopes ended after a crushing defeat against South Africa, while Bangladesh failed to capitalize on several close matches earlier in the tournament.

Both sides will now aim to finish their campaigns on a high and possibly spoil the semi-final hopes of higher-ranked teams.

The Road Ahead

As the league stage nears its end, every run and wicket will matter in deciding the final semi-finalist. India’s superior net run rate gives them a clear advantage, but New Zealand’s fighting spirit and Sri Lanka’s resilience could still produce a surprise.

The remaining fixtures will determine who joins South Africa, Australia, and England in the final four:

• Thursday, Oct 24: India vs New Zealand
• Friday, Oct 25: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan
• Sunday, Oct 27: India vs Bangladesh
• Sunday, Oct 27: England vs New Zealand

What the Experts Say

Former Indian captain Mithali Raj believes India control their own destiny. “If India play with composure, they should qualify comfortably,” she said in a recent interview. “The key will be handling pressure moments — especially against New Zealand.”

Meanwhile, ex-New Zealand cricketer Katey Martin emphasized the importance of net run rate. “For New Zealand, it’s not just about winning; it’s about winning big,” she noted. “Every boundary and every wicket could make the difference.”

Conclusion: A Thrilling Finish Awaits

The final days of the Women’s World Cup 2025 league stage promise nail-biting drama. India hold the advantage, but New Zealand and Sri Lanka are still clinging to their mathematical chances.

As fans around the world prepare for a tense weekend, one thing is certain — the fight for the final semi-final spot will showcase the passion, grit, and unpredictability that define women’s cricket today.

Whether it’s India’s consistency, New Zealand’s fighting instinct, or Sri Lanka’s underdog determination, the race is far from over.

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• Link “Women’s World Cup 2025 schedule” to your fixtures or results post.
• Link “India Women’s team performance” to your match analysis article.
• Link “New Zealand Women in World Cup” to your player statistics post.
• Link “Sri Lanka Women’s cricket history” to your team profiles section.